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Will Alonso Ever Win Another World Championship?

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Re: Will Alonso Ever Win Another World Championship?

Postby Lyria on Thu Jul 24, 2014 12:19 pm

As I said before, Alonso is running out of time, you only have a limited shelf life in F1 and he's knocking on in years compared to many in the sport. He has to see his chances slipping away but does he jump and risk things with a new team, or stay at Ferrari and risk having another season in a dog of a car? Sure they're telling him it will all be different next year, but I'm also guessing they've been saying that the past few years and it hasn't been. It's a real dilemma for him I bet.
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Re: Will Alonso Ever Win Another World Championship?

Postby Sakae on Thu Jul 24, 2014 12:34 pm

I he lowers his demands, I think Massa could be a toast and out. (Would be anyone actually surprised to learn that Alonso has depleted his motivation)?
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Re: Will Alonso Ever Win Another World Championship?

Postby Lawrence on Mon Sep 01, 2014 3:52 pm

Well, if I believe what is on the front page (and I don't know of any reason not to), then Alonso's choice appears to be spend another season at Ferrari or take the $32 million offer and go to McLaren. If the Honda engine isn't up to snuff for next year (and rumors say it is not)..then changing teams is a leap of faith. He could end up McLaren under a multi-year contract and never have a chance to win his third WC. So, I suspect he remains at Ferrari for another season to see what is developing.

At this point, Mercedes may be the only team to be with in 2015. If Honda isn't up to them, then we have to rely on Renault and Red Bull to get their act together (with semi-retired Adrian Newey) or Ferrari to get its act together (which right now doesn't look very promising).....so Mercedes may be the only game in town for 2015. This may end up creating a very quiet silly season as there is no good place for anyone to jump to.
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Re: Will Alonso Ever Win Another World Championship?

Postby Sakae on Mon Sep 01, 2014 3:58 pm

PlanetF1
"Honda motorsport chief Yasuhisa Arai is confident the Japanese manufacturer will be able to match fellow engine supplier Mercedes in 2015".
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Re: Will Alonso Ever Win Another World Championship?

Postby Lawrence on Mon Sep 01, 2014 7:45 pm

Well, I think there is a very simple test....if Alonso goes to McLaren, then the motor may be competitive. If Alonso does not go to McLaren, then it is almost certainly not competitive.

Needless to say, he ain't going to sign a 100 million contract without getting some assurances and proof.
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Re: Will Alonso Ever Win Another World Championship?

Postby Lyria on Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:32 pm

Lawrence wrote:Well, I think there is a very simple test....if Alonso goes to McLaren, then the motor may be competitive. If Alonso does not go to McLaren, then it is almost certainly not competitive.

Needless to say, he ain't going to sign a 100 million contract without getting some assurances and proof.


Ahh but if say Hamilton, Vettel or even Raikkonen went there instead of Alonso, would it still not be competitive? Surely it doesn't all rely on Alonso's opinion does it?

Edit: Just read Alonso is staying at Ferrari for 2015 (according to Sky). That means he's either sure the McLaren isn't a better option, or he's trusting (again) the Ferrari line that 'next year they will give him a faster car' :evil:
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Re: Will Alonso Ever Win Another World Championship?

Postby Lawrence on Tue Sep 02, 2014 4:29 pm

Lyria wrote:Ahh but if say Hamilton, Vettel or even Raikkonen went there instead of Alonso, would it still not be competitive? Surely it doesn't all rely on Alonso's opinion does it?


If Alonso isn't going, neither are they. Mercedes is still the best bet for next year and the team is as much behind Hamilton as they are Rosberg. Red Bull is now the #1 team for Renault, so Vettel would only go if Honda was better. I don't think McLaren is too hot on Raikkonen. Button may hang onto his seat yet.
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Re: Will Alonso Ever Win Another World Championship?

Postby Sakae on Tue Sep 02, 2014 5:02 pm

2015 looks like fight between engines of Renault (RBR) and Mercedes (Mercedes). Honda may, or may not be an excellent engine to have, but McLaren might not be ready for them. They had long association with Mercedes, and in theory they should be very close to them, but we see this is not working (yet), and drivers must see this quite clearly, which is perhaps why Dennis is admitting they have trouble to attract big names for next year.
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Re: Will Alonso Ever Win Another World Championship?

Postby Mach on Wed Sep 03, 2014 12:29 am

Lawrence wrote:Well, I think there is a very simple test....if Alonso goes to McLaren, then the motor may be competitive. If Alonso does not go to McLaren, then it is almost certainly not competitive.

Needless to say, he ain't going to sign a 100 million contract without getting some assurances and proof.

Will FIA give Honda an opportunity to show their engines performance before next season?

Probably not :noway:

So will Alonso, Vettel, Hamilton et-al take the risk and jump to an unproven McLaren-Honda team?

Probably not :noway:

:clint:
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Re: Will Alonso Ever Win Another World Championship?

Postby Lyria on Wed Sep 03, 2014 6:51 am

Mach wrote:
Lawrence wrote:Well, I think there is a very simple test....if Alonso goes to McLaren, then the motor may be competitive. If Alonso does not go to McLaren, then it is almost certainly not competitive.

Needless to say, he ain't going to sign a 100 million contract without getting some assurances and proof.

Will FIA give Honda an opportunity to show their engines performance before next season?

Probably not :noway:

So will Alonso, Vettel, Hamilton et-al take the risk and jump to an unproven McLaren-Honda team?

Probably not :noway:

:clint:


Welcome to the forum Mach, enjoy your time here 8) 8)

Alonso won't join McLaren for 2015 now, apparently he's staying at Ferrari, but Hamilton's contract isn't signed yet so who knows? Vettel isn't happy with this years car, I suppose he might move if he was given enough promises and guarantees, again, only time will tell on that one.
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Re: Will Alonso Ever Win Another World Championship?

Postby Sakae on Wed Sep 03, 2014 7:13 am

Another way to look at it is from his point of you, namely, I think, Alonso is now in age bracket when he is slowly running out of time as a competetive racing driver, and he might not want to start from baseline with another team, and wait another two or three years whether he might get a winning car. From that point of view why not then just as well stay with Ferrari? Second issue to consider, he is accustomed to his Italian environment and life comfort Italy is known for; are they, he and his female partner, ready then abandon all of that, and really want to move to GB?
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Re: Will Alonso Ever Win Another World Championship?

Postby Lawrence on Wed Sep 03, 2014 1:50 pm

Mach wrote:Will FIA give Honda an opportunity to show their engines performance before next season?

Probably not :noway:

So will Alonso, Vettel, Hamilton et-al take the risk and jump to an unproven McLaren-Honda team?

Probably not :noway:

:clint:


I assume that any big name driver (Alonso, Hamilton and Vettel) are going to want to have some assurances that the engine is up to snuff before they move to McLaren. This would certainly include things like factory visits, having their agents review the progress they are making, etc. So I am guessing that they have a lot more information than we, some of it unique to them. If McLaren-Honda wants those drivers, it is going to have to prove that it can perform. Therefore, if they are not moving to McLaren....it is probably because Honda was not able demonstrate that the engine is ready. So, if no one is moving to McLaren, I don't expect much from them for 2015. So, unless Red Bull or Ferrari conduct a miraculous recovery, I expect Mercedes to be the dominant car in 2015.
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Re: Will Alonso Ever Win Another World Championship?

Postby Lawrence on Wed Sep 03, 2014 1:52 pm

Sakae wrote:Another way to look at it is from his point of you, namely, I think, Alonso is now in age bracket when he is slowly running out of time as a competetive racing driver, and he might not want to start from baseline with another team, and wait another two or three years whether he might get a winning car. From that point of view why not then just as well stay with Ferrari? Second issue to consider, he is accustomed to his Italian environment and life comfort Italy is known for; are they, he and his female partner, ready then abandon all of that, and really want to move to GB?


Well, it may be a few years before Ferrari creates a championship winning car. It certainly won't be in 2015. So, I suspect if Alonso wants the third world championship, he will have to move teams in 2016.
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Re: Will Alonso Ever Win Another World Championship?

Postby Sakae on Thu Sep 04, 2014 6:33 pm

Lawrence wrote:
Sakae wrote:Another way to look at it is from his point of you, namely, I think, Alonso is now in age bracket when he is slowly running out of time as a competetive racing driver, and he might not want to start from baseline with another team, and wait another two or three years whether he might get a winning car. From that point of view why not then just as well stay with Ferrari? Second issue to consider, he is accustomed to his Italian environment and life comfort Italy is known for; are they, he and his female partner, ready then abandon all of that, and really want to move to GB?


Well, it may be a few years before Ferrari creates a championship winning car. It certainly won't be in 2015. So, I suspect if Alonso wants the third world championship, he will have to move teams in 2016.

I am not so sure who will be up or down next year. Mercedes and RBR certainly will pursue continuity, in RBR case accelerated recovery, and they may have momentum, but one never knows. Who predicted 2014 scenario please stand up now. In Mercedes case I think they will in self-defeating style start loosing grounds, Lowe self proclaimed brilliance notwithstanding. There is too many useless distractions with drivers, and that cannot be helpful at all.
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Re: Will Alonso Ever Win Another World Championship?

Postby Lawrence on Fri Sep 05, 2014 3:52 pm

Sakae wrote:Who predicted 2014 scenario please stand up now.


The problem with predicting 2014 was that there were new engine regulations, and almost certainly someone was going to get it right and someone was going to get it wrong. As it was, two of three manufacturers got it wrong.

But there is rule continuity for 2015 with the Renault and Ferrari playing catch-up. It gets much more predictable. It would probably take a lot of trolling through my posts of the last fews years to confirm this, but I never had much doubt that Red Bull and Vettel were going to win in 2011 and 2012 and 2013. So in the face of rule continuity and no surprises from Honda, then I think Mercedes has the edge for 2015.
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